Two heavy events detonated the market, and the US dollar staged a "pillar jump" to a new level

On Friday (April 27), the global financial market ushered in two major events: the latest report released by the United States hinted that the US economic growth in the first quarter was better than market expectations, and the US dollar once stood at the 92.00 mark. In addition, the DPRK-ROK summit ushered in a historic meeting, and the two sides announced that they would stop all hostile acts against each other. The leaders of the ROK and the DPRK agreed to strive to end the war state within the year. US President Trump subsequently issued a tweet saying that good things are approaching but more grind.

US GDP is better than expected US dollar hit 92 mark

According to the latest report of the US Department of Commerce, the initial quarterly real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the US recorded 2.3%, better than the expected 2%, and the previous value was 2.9%.

In terms of sub-items, the growth rate of actual consumer expenditures, which accounted for the main body of US economic activity, was weak, rising by 1.1%, the smallest increase since 2013. In the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate of consumer spending was revised up to 4%, the highest in three years.

Although the first quarter GDP performance was the best in the same period since 2015, it still slowed down compared with the performance of the previous three quarters or nearly 3%. It also reminded the outside world that the data in the first quarter is still distorted.

Analysts expect that in the context of a strong labor market, the economy will rebound as tax cuts begin to produce results, but favorable effects such as inflation and borrowing costs are beginning to recede, and trade tensions are a hindrance.

“In the past few years, data has been weak in the first quarter,” said David Sloan, senior economist at Continuum Economics. “There is a rebound. Anti-tax will support consumer spending and business investment,” and “trade is undoubtedly a risk.”

Financial Zerohod said that although consumer performance fell to a low in five years, the US first quarter GDP performance was still stronger than expected. GDP performance reflects growth in business investment, consumer spending, exports, and inventory investment. Overall, this GDP report is solid and provides more support for the Fed to raise interest rates in the future.

Finance Network, station Forexlive said that the US GDP in the first quarter of this year fell compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but better than expected, and the best year since 2015.

Another data released later showed that although the US Trump administration's tax reduction policy has landed this year, since April, under the pressure of the global trade war panic, US consumer confidence has finally fallen, and short-term inflation expectations have been going down. .

The results of the survey released by the University of Michigan on Friday showed that the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April was 98.8, better than the expected 98 and the initial value of 97.8.

Curtin, head of consumer research at the University of Michigan, pointed out that consumer confidence has improved in the second half of the month, reducing the decline in April data, making the final value close to the average of 98.9 in 2018, and the annual average of 98.9 is also the record since 2000. High position. Tax reform and trade policies have triggered heated and spontaneous discussions in the market. The evaluation of tax reforms is mostly positive, but the evaluation of trade policies is just the opposite, triggering the polarization of consumer sentiment. In addition, the current economic situation can generally be evaluated as “has been developed as well as possible”. In terms of future trends, although consumers expect the economy to not decline in the short term, long-term economic expansion has caused some consumers and even economists to worry about future economic trends.

After the release of GDP data, the US dollar rushed to 92.00, which is also the 200-day moving average, and then fell back, currently trading near 91.80.

(US dollar index 30 minutes chart)

The dollar is heading towards the best week since December 2016, as US Treasury yields have risen, causing the euro to fall sharply, while the euro has been hampered by the ECB’s dovish argument. US Treasury yields are tempting, and investor interest in the dollar has increased.

Due to US President Trump’s tax cuts and spending plans, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond reached a 3% psychological level due to double concerns about inflation and increased debt supply.

Earlier this year, as investors focused more on trade frictions and geopolitical issues, the correlation between US Treasury yields and the US dollar was broken, and currency movements were mainly driven by Trump's tweets rather than economics. Data and rate of return.

But so far this week, Sino-US trade tensions have eased, and the market has turned its attention to interest rate movements.

In addition, in Chicago's currency futures market, speculators' net dollar short positions have reached a six-and-a-half-year high, suggesting that some short-covering will come.

“The position lift supports the recent strength of the US dollar. The currency with the largest net long position in the US dollar is the biggest loser,” ANZ analysts wrote.

"Previously, US interest rates were not important to the US dollar exchange rate, and now it has become important, and our stock market situation shows that the US dollar has more short covering space," said Michael Sneyd, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London.

Analysts at the Dutch cooperative bank said that the US dollar index may rise further in the future. While higher US Treasury yields will give the dollar another boost, the dollar may only need a trigger point to catch up with last year's expanding spreads.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the US dollar index has continued to show a strong upward trend. It is now further breaking the 91.75 first-line resistance, and will test the 200-day moving average and the upward channel of the uptrend channel since February (at 92.00).

If the daybreak further breaks through 92.00, it will open up more room for growth, and the initial target will focus on 91.60. If it is blocked at 92.00, it will pay attention to the short-term callback risk. Below, we will pay attention to the horizontal support of 91.75 and 91.50.

Today, the pound/dollar plunged more than 150 points, and the lowest fell to 1.3745, refreshing the low since March 1. Due to the latest GDP data, the UK's economic growth rate in the first quarter was the lowest in six years.

(£/USD 30 minute chart)

The British Financial Times article said that the UK's first quarter GDP growth rate fell to the slowest rate in more than five years, resulting in the Bank of England's probability of raising interest rates in May is close to zero. The weak brokerage data has caused the central bank to raise interest rates to suddenly cool down, which will undoubtedly suppress the pound.

Howard Archer, director of financial advisory at EY Item Club, said UK GDP growth is worrying and disappointing. The degree of slowdown indicates that the UK's economic growth momentum has been greatly weakened by the weather.

About gold:

Spot gold volatility is higher, currently trading above 1320. From a technical point of view, if you continue to go up, you will challenge 1326 and 1333. On the downside, if it breaks below the intraday low, it will test the initial support at 1314, with stronger support at 1307 and 1300.

Spot gold 30 minutes chart)

As the US dollar continues to rebound, coupled with the easing of Sino-US trade frictions, the US President sent a large delegation to China to negotiate trade, and today’s DPRK-ROK summit meeting signed the Panmunjom Declaration, which will end military confrontation as soon as possible and realize the denuclearization of the peninsula. Not conducive to the price of gold.

Korean and Korean leaders ushered in a historic meeting

According to Chinanews.com, North Korean top leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Wen Zai-Yin signed the "Panmen Store Declaration" and held a press conference outside the Peace House. The heads of the two countries announced that they would stop all hostile acts against each other. The Yonhap News Agency said that the leaders of the ROK and the DPRK agreed to strive to end the state of war within the year; announced the promotion of talks between the ROK, the DPRK and the ROK, and the South Korea and the DPRK; the two sides agreed to establish a common permanent liaison room in Kaesong.

According to further reports by CCTV, the DPRK and ROK leaders announced that they will advance the final war agreement and peace agreement within this year; end the military confrontation as soon as possible, realize the denuclearization of the peninsula; advance the tripartite talks between the ROK, the DPRK and the United States, and the four-party talks between China, the United States, and the ROK as soon as possible; Visit Pyongyang in the fall.

South Korean President Wen Zai said that the DPRK-ROK summit has built a cornerstone for unification. Kim Jong-un, the top leader of North Korea, said that the DPRK and the ROK are compatriots and should not be separated. Kim Jong-un said that he and Wen Zai have a firm determination to peace and prosperity.

After the declaration was issued, China, Japan, Germany and other countries welcomed the move. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Hao said that today's DPRK-ROK leaders have successfully met and the positive results have been conducive to enhancing reconciliation and cooperation between the two sides, maintaining peace and stability on the peninsula, and promoting the political settlement of the peninsula. The Chinese side congratulates and welcomes this. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he strongly hopes that North Korea will take practical measures. The Kremlin said that the DPRK-ROK summit was a very positive development.

According to the latest report from the US financial broadcast CNBC, following the historic meeting between the leaders of South Korea and North Korea today, Trump today said that the North Korean issue is coming to an end.

According to reports, Trump responded to the meeting between the DPRK and the ROK, saying that South Korea and North Korea have vowed to reach a consensus statement to get rid of the nuclear weapons issue on the peninsula, but did not give details on how to implement new measures.

Trump is expected to meet with North Korean leaders in May or June this year.

Just a few hours ago, Trump issued a message saying that "the North Korean issue is about to come to an end and all North Koreans should be proud of the breakthroughs made today in the land of North Korea."

And just before it came out of this tweet, Trump had sent a separate tweet, saying, "Good things are coming, but more grinding, only time will bring everything to the end."

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

Furniture Leather

Furniture Leather, sofa leather, pvc leather for sofa, pu leather for sofa, leather for furniture,

Pvc Leather For Furniture,Pvc Leather For Sofa,Furniture Pu Leather,Furniture Pvc Foam Leather

Vigor Plus Co., Ltd , https://www.vigorplusx.com