Deficit trade on the ancient commercial road (below)

(Guangzhou thirteen lines in oil painting)

one

Looking at ancient and modern China and foreign countries, generally speaking, a large surplus economy has a high surplus in foreign trade, and there are only a few possible reasons:

1. Technical advantages. This makes it more labor-intensive, can increase the export volume by relying on large and high-quality products, and even produce the unique products that others need, and rely on the demand for rigidity. Therefore, even though their nationals are wealthy, they are buying and buying, but selling and selling are even more powerful. For example, developed countries such as Germany and Japan have become surplus countries.

2. Cost advantage. Some countries do not have the technical skills, but they can use the low cost of labor, land prices, interest, etc. (the so-called cheap elements), and increase exports by a large number of products that are not necessarily optimal but cheap. Especially in the era of globalization, many countries, including China, have gone through this development path of “export-driven export-oriented economy” that uses cheap elements of “eight-party investment and four-sea sales”. The cheap labor also constitutes a purchasing power barrier to imports. Even if tariff barriers are not needed, high surpluses can be caused from low imports and high exports.

3. Multi-horse surplus or “low human rights advantage”.

In 1970, Evsey D. Domar, the economist, proposed the famous "Doma slavery hypothesis". He noticed the correlation between slavery, serfdom and the production of large-scale export commodities in history. In the case of large-scale export agriculture, slave-slavery is more competitive than free labor when the labor force is insufficient. He cited the serfization of Russia in the 16th and 17th centuries and the "two-degree serfization" in Eastern Europe, as well as the southern slavery before the American Civil War, pointing out that the former was not "the remnants of the darkness of the Middle Ages", but after the prosperous period of free agriculture, In order to adapt to the needs of exporting agriculture, the latter was introduced from Africa for the development of export agriculture in the absence of a slavery tradition in the home country of the colonizer (UK).

The Doma model is only a hypothesis about the relevance of slavery (slavery-slavery) to large-scale commercial agriculture, and does not mention exports and surpluses. However, his enslavement of large-scale commercial agriculture is export-oriented, and almost all have a large surplus of exports and few imports. This is the description of Braudel's description of foreign trade in Russia and Eastern Europe. More typical: before the US Civil War, the entire federal long-term trade deficit, especially the international trade in the Northern Free State and the trade in the South is a deficit, while the slavery in the South is the opposite, international trade and trade with the North are surpluses. .

Later, Krugman and others suggested that this phenomenon may not be limited to agriculture, nor may it be limited to slavery. The effect of East Asian “sweatshops” on high surplus economy may be the same. From the white rule of South Africa, South Africa also relied on the example of a large surplus in the apartheid system (South Africa, which has eliminated apartheid today, is already a typical deficit country). In combination with the logical thinking of "The Honorables of Honecker", the author puts forward The concept of low human rights advantage. The so-called "advantage" is of course quoted. It does not mean that it has any value affirmation. However, this concept is used to explain the mechanism of high surplus in some countries in ancient and modern times. I thought it was established.

In the past, slave labor was generally considered to be cheap labor, so it could also be classified as the “cost advantage” of the above reason 2. But later analysis pointed out that the role of this "advantage" may not be limited to lowering wages, or even mainly not to lower wages. In fact, Krugman and others argued in the discussion of the "Dorma model" that the wages of free workers cannot be compared with the daily expenses of slaves, if the costs of purchasing slaves and raising minor slaves, supervision and The cost of escape, then slave labor may not be "cheap", and the Nobel Prize winner in economics, Fogel, is even more alarming about the cost of slave labor in the southern United States before the civil war. With regard to South Africa, people also noticed that the wages of black workers in South Africa under apartheid, although far lower than the whites in the country, are still much higher than the wages of “free blacks” in neighboring countries, so that South Africa became a black country in neighboring countries. Ground.

Therefore, “low human rights advantage” and “low wage advantage” may overlap in reality, but this is not necessarily the case. These two "advantages" are not the same thing.

So where is the “advantage” in terms of factor prices? The author puts forward the concept of “factor integration cost”. It must be pointed out that this concept cannot be confused with the so-called “transaction cost”. Coase’s so-called “transaction cost” is for free people. It refers to the use of a contractual integration organization (free enterprise) to reduce the cost of countless individual contracts (individual economies). It emphasizes the freedom of contract. . But in fact, sometimes contract-free coercion is more "efficient" than bargaining (whether free or individual): for example, in the 16th century Russia, the big manor built for exporting food is sparsely populated in Russia. It is much more troublesome to recruit free laborers everywhere than to force farmers to land on the land (ie, serfization). Slave labor in the southern United States may not be cheap, but they may be more tempted to work harder than the northern workers who are not paying high wages but often bargaining, but not to mention that forced land acquisition is more efficient than buying land. "". Regardless of the pros and cons of such practices in other ways – Fogel believes that even if slavery in the South is more “efficient,” the Civil War is worth fighting because freedom itself is invaluable. However, the high surplus in these places is indeed related to the "advantage" of reducing the cost of factor integration under certain conditions. This is not difficult to find.

4. The surplus generated by industrial investment. The industrial investment generated internationally is relatively simple from the perspective of “capital projects”: the capital exporting country is a deficit, and the capital importing country is a surplus. However, from the "current project" (trade project), it is more complicated. Generally speaking, there are two main situations for developed countries: the "export-oriented investment products trade" of industrialized countries to industrialized countries, and the expansion of industrialization in the world. One way is for industrialized countries to go directly to the post-issuing countries to invest in setting up factories and then buy back their products. In this case, industrialized countries usually end up with a capital account deficit and a current account deficit (the latter is the commodity trade deficit). However, even in the initial stage, even if foreign direct investment, the capital goods of the factory are also entered through foreign trade. Before the formation of a large amount of production capacity can be sold back, the industrialized countries will have a large foreign trade surplus; the other way is not foreign direct investment, Instead, the late-developing countries purchase investment products (not only capital goods, often raw materials and intermediate products) from industrialized countries to industrialize themselves, and after the formation of production capacity, they are mainly not for export, but for "import substitution." In that case, it is easier to form a large trade deficit of its own – that is, the surplus of an industrialized country.

5. Resource output advantages. Typical is the “petroleum dollar” accumulated by the oil exporting countries in the long-term large surplus. These countries do not have any technological advantages. The price of the factors is usually not low, and there is no unique system. But it is a good life. It is not surprising that oil is too much to sell.

6. Mercantilism protection policy. It has been pointed out before that the exact translation of the so-called mercantilism should be trade controlism, that is, the use of state power to implement "trade protectionism" and artificially suppress imports to promote exports. Under the same conditions, this will of course increase the chance of a surplus. Nowadays, "mercanism" generally refers to the intervention of market economy countries operating in the form of tariff barriers. However, in the wider and modern times, the stricter regulation than the tariff barriers (direct trade ban, etc.) is not uncommon, so simply The high degree of tariffs to measure trade freedom is sometimes misleading.

7, "consumption disadvantage." Simply put, it is due to the lack of purchasing power of imported goods, resulting in a “poor country surplus”. In fact, the so-called surplus is more selling and less buying in international trade, but how much is a relative concept. The mechanisms mentioned by the author may have bought quite a lot, but the reason for the surplus is that there are too many sales (typically such as contemporary Germany, Japan and some oil exporting countries), which is usually enviable. The "consumption disadvantage" refers to the opposite situation: not much is sold, but less is bought, which is certainly not an enviable situation. For example, Eastern European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary have seen a sharp increase in exports during the period of economic transformation. However, trade has a deficit because of the economic recovery and prosperity after the transition period of the “shock” period. Imports have increased, and imports have grown faster than exports. So, should they envy the surplus of our "silver age" in the Ming and Qing Dynasties?

For the above seven reasons, some are enviable and some are offensive, so it is wrong to blindly praise or blindly curse the surplus. Among the 7 reasons, items 1, 4, and 5 will lead to “sell more”, and 2, 3, and 6 items will lead to “sell more” and “less buy”, only item 7 will only result in “less”. Buy less." In addition to these seven items, the author can't think of any other reasons that lead to a high surplus. Of course, these causes and effects are only logical. The so-called logic is to change from "reverse" to "shun". It is better than no, but it does not mean that it can be done with it. For example, countries that implement trade protection barriers in reality may not necessarily have a surplus, and a deficit is also possible. However, under other conditions, if the policy is not implemented, the deficit will be even greater. A surplus country may have several of the seven items, but if there is none, I think it is impossible to have a surplus.

two

Logically back, we can also give seven possible reasons for the high deficit:

1. Technical disadvantages. It is impossible to produce many goods with demand, especially high value-added goods, or the self-production efficiency is low, the quality difference is small and the price is too high, and it is impossible to compete with imported products.

2. Cost disadvantage. Labor, land prices, high interest rates, scarce resources, even if the technology is advanced, self-production is not cost-effective, can only buy and buy.

3. The “high human rights and disadvantages” opposite to the “low human rights advantage”: the deficit between the North and the South before the civil war, the deficit after the abolition of apartheid in South Africa, and so on. Of course, this is not a "disadvantage" in values. In fact, for example, after the American Civil War, slavery was eliminated. The "competitive advantage" of the South and the "disadvantage" of the North were simultaneously eliminated. The United States also got rid of the hidden dangers of "bad money expelling good money" (this is a bad value judgment). The economic competitiveness of the United States has been improved and the technological advantages in the international economy have been exerted. Since the 1870s, the long-term foreign trade deficit since the colonial era has changed from a long-term foreign trade deficit to a surplus of 100 years. Until the 1970s, it was transferred to the "consumption advantage." The resulting "poor country deficit".

4. The deficit formed by “import substitution industrialization”. Some countries in Latin America and China’s deficit after the Jiawu period fall into this category.

5. Resource disadvantages. Contrary to the type of “oil-exporting countries”, these countries must import large amounts of resources, especially for the consumption of imported resources and the lack of export industries, which is also likely to lead to a deficit. In the neighboring countries, such as the Philippines, this state has been in this state for a long time.

6. Lack of trade protection policies and no tariff barriers. Especially if the trade partner sets a barrier and we have not set it, it is more likely to cause a deficit.

7. The last item is the "consumption advantage." Residents are relatively wealthy, have a high desire for imported goods, and have strong purchasing power, while the counterparty is the opposite. This is a typical "poor country deficit", which was the case after the United States in the 1970s. This situation is more prevalent in ancient agricultural countries, and this has been reduced in the industrial age. However, in the “post-industrialization” stage, as the manufacturing industry of developed countries moves outwards and imports of manufactured goods increase, this situation has increased. In developed countries, in addition to a few foreign manufacturing industries such as Germany and Japan, there are more and more countries with at least a deficit in “tangible trade”. Even in transition countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic, manufacturing exports are still rising, but because Consumer imports have grown faster and have entered this ranks. In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, due to strong consumption, there has been almost a visible trade deficit since industrialization. It is also compensated by intangible trade and investment income, and it can maintain a normal balance of payments.

In addition to the reasons why the above 7 items can be “reversely pushed”, there is also a cause of the deficit, that is, “the advantage of payment means”, which means that there is a special source of “foreign exchange” (such as having a large amount of gold mines, or through external aggression). A large number of gold and silver, or the national currency has a high degree of cross-border credit, the trade partners are willing to accept and store. This can be bought and bought internationally without relying on export commodities. Obviously, this is often based on strong national strength and relatively strong economic radiation. It can be imagined that a low-credit currency in a weak country cannot be accepted as a means of payment, and at the same time, there is no international currency storage, and it is impossible to conduct high-definition trade. However, this reason cannot be reversed, that is, the advantage of payment means can lead to high deficit, but the disadvantage of payment means can not lead to high surplus.

three

In contemporary economies with relatively complete data, we can more easily analyze which one or more of the above reasons the surplus or deficit is from. However, in the pre-modern economic history, due to incomplete information or controversy, it is often impossible to directly derive conclusions. However, if the reason for the defy is given above includes all the possibilities of logic, then we can use the exclusion method to analyze the reason for the actual existence. For example: What are the reasons for the high surplus in the “Silver Age” era in the Ming and Qing Dynasties?

In the Ming and Qing Dynasties, China is neither a resource exporting economy like an oil exporting country nor an "investment output". "Low human rights advantage" is not obvious. The Ming and Qing dynasties did not popularize serfdom, slavery or apartheid, although the autocratic dynasty could not talk about modern human rights, but including the West, at that time in most parts of the world (especially in the Ming Dynasty, even the British) The glorious revolution has not happened yet.) So these three items can be ruled out.

In terms of technical advantages, it has been said in the past that the four inventions are in the Han, Tang and Song Dynasties, and that the technology and industrial technology in the Ming and Qing Dynasties are stagnant. In recent years, the "California School", which advocates the "silver age", emphasizes that the industrial technology of the Ming and Qing Dynasties has made great progress, and even the agricultural sector has the saying that "the iron tower wins over Jiangdong Plow". In particular, Mr. Li Bozhong has done a lot of research work in this area, which has greatly updated our understanding of the economic and technological level of the Ming and Qing Dynasties. However, his work mainly emphasizes that the Ming and Qing dynasties and the industrial revolution before the West (UK) have little difference, or that there is progress compared with the Song and Yuan Dynasties. Even if we believe in these claims (there is a technology depending on the degree of application), China has no technical advantage over the West after the industrial revolution, and this common sense is still reliable. In particular, the export of Chinese silk from the Han Dynasty only exported silk, to the Qing Dynasty, mainly to export silk, which also shows that Chinese traditional expertise such as silk weaving also lost its advantage in this "great surplus era". What's more, it has been pointed out that the phenomenon that Western industrial products are difficult to sell in the Chinese market until the end of the 19th century before the Sino-Japanese War, can't we say that China still has any technological advantages to the West at that time?

Therefore, at least from the 18th century, the surplus of China's technological advantages can also be ruled out.

The following two are more controversial. In terms of trade protectionism, the past epidemic has shown that the ban on sea bans, the closure of the country, and the ban after the ban, only a trade, etc., while the West has always demanded free trade. Now, in turn, the mainstream saying that it has become a closed-door lock-up is only a moment when China was still "globalized." The regular tariffs (taxes, banknotes) in the Ming and Qing Dynasties are far lower than the tariff barriers in the West (of course, there are many extra-tax rules, and the disputes here are not discussed), and many people have used it to prove the foreign trade in the Ming and Qing Dynasties and at least the Qing Dynasty. Policies are more "free" than the West.

Western-style tariff controllers (previously referred to as "mercanism") did not understand the authorities in the Ming and Qing Dynasties - "mercanism" is characterized by restrictions on imports and exports, which is of course contrary to modern trade freedom, but China does not engage in "mercantilism", but it does not mean to trade freedom. In fact, the predecessors of the Ming and Qing Dynasties prevailed in "pre-commercialism", that is, administrative barriers were heavier than tariff barriers, not only restricting imports, but also restricting export restrictions. Sometimes, even "incoming goods are not allowed to enter the market", sea merchants become pirates To the point. However, such a restriction will only reduce the total amount of trade, and it does not have the function of reducing the deficit and causing a surplus as in the case of "mercantilism." Even if the suppression of exports is more powerful than imports, it should logically help to form a deficit.

The "Silver Age" is known for its large surplus. Obviously, this cannot be attributed to the limited business policy at the time. If this policy does have an impact, it can only be said that it cuts the real cause of the surplus. If there is no such "pre-commercialism" restriction, the surplus of the Ming and Qing Dynasties will be even greater. Sure enough, in the era of the defeat of the Opium War and the loss of customs autonomy in the Qing Dynasty, imports from the West increased, but China’s exports increased even faster, so that we have seen the above-mentioned phenomenon: “opium deficit” reduced to zero. The general commodity surplus was higher than before the Sino-Japanese War.

In fact, the surplus in the Ming and Qing Dynasties is not due to trade protectionism. It can also be seen from the logic of debate: scholars who advocate the "silver age" generally tend to promote the trade policy of the Ming and Qing Dynasties, and advocate that this policy is closer to trade freedom, the so-called "Adam Smith" in Beijing". This in itself removes a reason to evade the “poor country surplus”. What is more obvious is that on the issue of “low cost advantage”, the trade surplus of contemporary China is highly correlated with low wages and low factor prices, which is almost universally recognized. The price of these in the Ming and Qing Dynasties compared with the West is quite controversial. The past epidemic shows that there is a big gap between the Qing economy and the West, and labor prices are also lower. However, scholars who advocated the "Silver Age" in order to oppose the "backward theory of the Qing Dynasty", but tried to find information to prove that the Ming and Qing nationals have a high standard of living, high wages, high land prices, etc., which is equivalent to denying "low factor prices to promote exports." Causes the cause of the surplus.

As a result, several of the above logical reasons may lead to the exclusion of high surpluses, leaving only the last item, the "consumption disadvantage." Some people may say that "low factor price" or low wage is not equal to low consumption power? In fact, this is still different. The low factor price is good for production and good for exports. The disadvantage of consumption is not good for imports. Although it will promote the surplus, there are still positive and negative differences. If Han and Qing are compared, the population and economic aggregates are of course greater after 1900, and foreign trade, including total exports, should be the same, but per capita is hard to say. Han Dynasty output silk (in addition to the main gold, and cleared for a period of time replaced by tea, most of the time is the first output of silk. In the absence of the total data of the Han Dynasty, can not directly contrast, only from silk and silk In terms of the added value difference, Qing’s export ability is harder to compliment than Han. We believe that “low-economy to promote exports” is better than “low-consumption capacity to suppress imports” is the main surplus in the Ming and Qing Dynasties. the reason.

Obviously, this is the most negative cause. Therefore, I have been unable to add to that in recent years (it seems to be from Nurhachi, Huang Taiji to Shun Kang, and even Dorgon, Xiaozhuang, it seems that everyone is struggling, and each man is handsome, and the holy monarch There is no such thing as the Qing Empire.

Qin Hui Economic Observer columnist

Professor, Department of History, School of Humanities, Tsinghua University

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