Foreign media: The Sino-US trade war will be officially launched on Friday.
The taste of a small trade war between China and the United States is becoming more and more intense. The Trump administration plans to investigate China’s violations of its intellectual property rights. In view of the fact that the Trump administration has been frustrated by domestic policies, the support rate has fallen, and there is a disagreement with China on the North Korean issue.
Therefore, Bloomberg said that the possibility of promoting trade protectionism in the United States (the Trump administration) has increased. In addition, CNBC said that the trade war between China and the United States may officially erupt this Friday.
So, if the US government is determined to maintain an unbalanced trade relationship, who will be the winner in this trade war? According to Bloomberg statistics, the total annual trade between China and the United States exceeds 500 billion US dollars. Therefore, once the trade war breaks out, many companies will suffer. Here are some of the companies that may become losers:
Some US companies, including Apple, produce their products in China but sell them in the US; and US companies that primarily meet the needs of the expanding Chinese consumer market.
American agricultural and transportation equipment companies that meet China's demand for soybeans and aviation.
An American manufacturing company that imports intermediate products from China as a raw material for production.
US retailers, including Wal-Mart, buy American consumers of low-cost electronics, apparel and furniture from China.
Other trading partners trapped in tariff issues. For example, in the steel industry, the total amount of steel imported directly from China accounts for less than 3% of total US steel imports.
While the US trade deficit for China to maintain long-term, however, the United States of Chinese agricultural products 000061, attending a trade surplus of nearly $ 17 billion share. About half of US soybean exports are exported to China. As the second largest crop in the region, soybeans are grown mainly in the Midwest of the United States, such as Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Soybean production is very impressive, and soybean exports have also surged, which is also an important factor in the US GDP growth in the second half of 2016. In addition, the US aviation industry may be the only industry in which the United States still maintains a competitive advantage, while China is the main buyer of the industry in the United States. In addition, the United States also has a trade surplus of 8 billion U.S. dollars in China’s transportation equipment industry.
US trade balance with China (by product)
US trade balance with China
US trade balance with China (by product), from right to left: computer and electronic products, electrical equipment, manufactured products, apparel products, machinery and equipment other than electrical appliances, furniture and decoration equipment, leather products, metal products , plastic and rubber products, textile products, non-metallic mineral products, chemicals, printed matter, wood products, special products, primary metal products, re-exported products and imported products, textiles and fabrics, fish and other seafood, paper products, Food, animal products, petroleum and coal products, second-hand goods, beverages and tobacco products, forestry products, minerals and ore, oil and gas, waste materials, transportation equipment, agricultural products
So what about the trade balance by region?
Trade balance accounts for US GDP rankings
Divided by trade balance in each state's GDP, from right to left: Tennessee, California, Mississippi, Illinois, Georgia, Nevada, New Jersey, Minnesota, Arkansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Indiana State, Rhode Island, Texas, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Idaho, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma Homer, Utah, New Hampshire, Maryland, Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa, Arizona, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, South Dakota, Myanmar Instate, New Mexico, Vermont, Hawaii, Delaware, Montana, South Carolina, West Virginia, Alabama, Washington, Alaska, Oregon, Louisiana
The results of the trade balance based on US state statistics are surprising. It is reported that there are eight states in the United States that have achieved trade surpluses with China. Six states, including West Virginia, supported Trump in last year's presidential election. In 2016, Louisiana achieved its largest trade surplus with China, with a total surplus accounting for 2.9% of the state's GDP. Given that 60% of US soybeans are exported through the Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana's (soy) exports to China are likely to be "exaggerated." Washington, the second-largest trade surplus with China, has a total surplus of 1.6% of the state's GDP, thanks to its aviation sector exports.
Tennessee has the largest trade deficit with China, accounting for 6.5% of the state's total GDP. This means that the increase in import prices due to tariffs has the greatest impact on Tennessee.
So, who will be the biggest loser in this trade war? Mississippi, Georgia, Illinois, and California. These states' trade deficits with China account for more than 3% of their GDP.
For the sake of brevity, we will not discuss another, more disturbing, and generally accepted view that trade wars almost inevitably lead to real wars. Therefore, no industry other than the US military industry can become a real winner. (compile / double knife)
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