International early bus: Golden violent US stocks plummeted to pay attention to the Fed resolution tonight
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On Tuesday (November 1), oil prices closed lower, gold rose to a one-month high, the Dow closed down more than 100 points, the intraday fell below the 18,000-point integer psychological barrier, European stocks fell for seven consecutive days, the dollar hit three against the euro At the weekly low, the Mexican peso hit a three-week low against the US dollar, and the offshore renminbi rose for three consecutive days, setting a record for the longest consecutive gain in more than a month.
Concerned about tomorrow at 02:00 am, the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision and issued a policy statement.
Market context
[RMB] The offshore renminbi rose for three consecutive days against the US dollar, setting a record for the longest consecutive increase in more than a month, even if traders in Asia saw net sell orders from banks and leveraged accounts; the dollar showed a weak trend, and the election situation was anxious. Risk avoidance is suppressed.
Dollar to RMB exchange rate trend (yellow line: on the shore; white line: offshore)
[The foreign exchange market] The dollar hit a three-week low against the euro. Due to political uncertainty in the United States, the Mexican peso hit a three-week low against the dollar, fearing that Republican candidate Trump won the election.
Euro to US dollar exchange rate trend
[Oil City] Oil prices closed lower, hitting a one-month low earlier, as US crude oil inventories are expected to increase last week, and investors doubt whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will implement the proposed production cuts.
Oil price trend
Brent crude oil closed down 0.47 US dollars, or 1%, to 48.14 US dollars per barrel, the daily low was 47.72 US dollars, which is the lowest level since September 28.
US crude oil closed down 0.19 US dollars, or 0.4%, to 46.67 US dollars per barrel, before hitting a one-month low of 46.20 US dollars.
[Golden market] Gold, silver and platinum rose to a one-month high. The stock market fell due to worries about the results of the US election. The dollar was lower and investors sought to hedge against precious metals.
Gold price trend
Spot gold hit a maximum of $1291.34 in early October, and rose by 1.1% to $1290.92 at 03:05 Beijing time.
Spot silver rose 2.9% to $18.38 an ounce, after hitting a high of 18.49. Platinum rose 1.5% to $991.50, hitting a one-month high of $997. Palladium rose 2.4% to $633.50.
[Stock market] The US stock market closed lower. The S&P index hit the lowest level in the past four months. The Dow closed down more than 100 points. As concerns about the US elections deepened next week, the US interest rate hike also put pressure on the stock market. European stock markets fell for the seventh consecutive day, led by financial stocks, dragging down the market around the uncertainty of the US presidential election next week.
S&P 500 index trend
The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 14.43 points, or 0.68%, to 2,111.72 points, the largest single-day percentage decline since October 11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 105.25 points, or 0.58%, to 18,037.10 points. The Nasdaq index closed down 35.558 points, or 0.69%, to 5,153.577 points.
The STOXX 600 index fell 1.1%, the British stock FTSE 100 index closed down 0.53%, the French stock CA C index fell 0.86%, the German stock DAX index fell 1.3%.
Trading clue
[RMB] Nick Bennenbroek, chief currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, believes the decline is different from the end of 2015 and the second quarter of 2016: it was mainly influenced by local factors in China, and this time it was affected by global events.
[The foreign exchange market] "There is no doubt that the uncertainty surrounding the election will weigh on the dollar," said Stephen Casey, senior currency trader at CambridGE GloBA l Payments. Analysts said that traders who had previously bullished the dollar sold before the election.
[Oil City] "The market focus has returned. So far, OPEC has not been able to come up with a convincing plan to cut production, and US crude oil inventories may rise from current levels," said New York energy hedge fund Again Capital partner John Kilduff. .
[Golden Market] HSBC Holdings said in a research report that Trump’s election as president may boost gold, which has exacerbated the uncertainty of the US economy and foreign policy.
[Stock Market] "The blow to dividend stocks is indeed bigger than other stocks," said Stephen Massocca, chief investment officer at Wedbush Equity Management LLC. "It's not clear if there is a new round of 'reducing the scale of panic' that is accumulating, fearing the Fed Action in December, and the entire low interest environment will change."
Data & Speech
[China's official PMI in October ] China's official manufacturing PMI of 51.2 in October was the highest in more than two years, with an expected 50.3 and a previous value of 50.4.
China's official non-manufacturing PMI in October 54, the previous value of 53.7.
[China October Caixin PMI] China's October financial new manufacturing PMI 51.2, hit a new high in July 2014, expected 50.1, the previous value of 50.1.
[UK October PMI] UK manufacturing PMI 54.3 in October, expected 54.5, the previous value of 55.4 was revised to 55.5.
[US October manufacturing index] US October ISM manufacturing index 51.9, expected 51.7, the previous value of 51.5.
Financial news
[The Bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged] Japan announced that the central bank's policy rate is -0.1%, expected to be -0.1%, and the previous value is -0.1%. The Bank of Japan said that the 2% inflation target may be realized in the second half of the three-year forecast period as of FY 2018, and the implementation time will be postponed until after Kuroda retires.
[The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates unchanged] The Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target is 1.5%, 1.5% expected, and the previous value is 1.5%.
Transaction reminder
In the Asian session on Tuesday (November 2), investors first focused on the performance of Australian construction permit data, which will guide the short-term trend of the Australian dollar. Then, investors mainly focused on the performance of the Chinese market.
In European time, in the euro area, investors pay more attention to French manufacturing PMI data, focusing on German employment data, as well as manufacturing PMI data in Germany and the Eurozone. The performance of German manufacturing industry has always brought great fluctuations to the Euro. And the recent good prospects for the euro zone, whether it can continue and it is worthy of investors' attention. In the UK, investors are mainly concerned with UK housing price index data. In addition, OPEC will hold a meeting during the period, investors who trade crude oil pay close attention to the latest reports in this regard.
During the New York session, the market ushered in the test of US ADP employment data, which will provide clear guidance for Friday's non-farm payrolls data. In addition, investors trading crude oil should naturally pay attention to the guidance provided by EIA crude oil inventory data to the trend of oil prices.
At 2 o'clock in the morning of Beijing time, the Fed will announce the latest interest rate resolution. This resolution has no Yellen conference and no economic expectations. Although the market generally expects the Fed not to raise interest rates, investors still have to pay attention to whether the resolution statement will reveal a clearer signal of the December rate hike. Changes in the Fed’s policy outlook have always brought greater volatility to the market, so the Fed’s resolution investors should pay close attention.
Financial calendar
16:50 French October manufacturing PMI
16:55 German manufacturing PMI in October, unemployed in October
17:00 Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI
20:15 US ADP employment in October
22:30 US EEA original, gasoline stock last week
The US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision and issued a policy statement at 02:00 the next day.
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