US election swing horror index soaring gold soaring bullish aggressive
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News spot gold rose to a one-month high on Tuesday (November 1), the US market hit a maximum of 1129.69 US dollars / ounce, the bullish aggressive attack; silver and platinum and other precious metals also soared to January high. On Tuesday, due to concerns about the results of the US election, the US dollar and US stocks were lower, prompting investors to seek gold safe haven. According to a recent poll conducted by well-known institutions such as the ABC and the Washington Post on Tuesday, the leading Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, has been overtaken by Trump for the first time since May. It is a suspense. The uncertainty of the election has caused the market risk aversion to rise sharply. The US dollar stocks have fallen, and gold and silver have generally risen. The US manufacturing data released during the day was extremely strong. In October, the final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 53.4, the highest since October last year. The October ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.9, indicating that the US economy is improving in the fourth quarter. However, the US September construction spending announced in February fell for the second consecutive month, threatening to drag the economic growth forecast for the third quarter.
The US dollar fell on Tuesday. As of press time, the US dollar index fell 0.44% to 97.91 points. US stocks continued to fall on Tuesday, the Dow fell 0.42% to 18065.49 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 2118.07 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.34% to 5171.42 points. Crude oil was mixed on Tuesday. The US oil index fell 0.02% to US$46.85/barrel. The oil index rose 0.29% to US$48.75/barrel.
On Tuesday, the FBI's investigation into Hillary's use of private e-mail during her tenure as Secretary of State helped to measure market volatility and risk aversion. The Fear Index VIX rose to a January high. Analysts say the Trump-style risk seems to have returned to the market, and at least the weakening of the dollar today is a testament to this. In its report, HSBC said that if Trump wins the election, the uncertainty of the US economy and foreign policy will support gold, and Trump's protectionist policies and tax cuts will increase the federal deficit. These are all negative factors for the US dollar. On Tuesday, the Fed Federal Open Market Committee FOMC meeting was held. It is widely expected that interest rates will not be raised in November. However, it seems that the interest rate hike in December seems to be a hard-fought thing. The market once thought that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December was 78%. But this week's CME Group federal watch tool shows only 6%. The unpredictable changes in the US election elections have had a huge impact on the market.
US October Markit manufacturing PMI final value rose to 53.4 for the highest since October last year
An industry report released by financial data company Markit on Tuesday (November 1) showed that the US manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to its highest level since October 2015.
The data shows that the final value of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in October was 53.4, with an initial value of 53.2 and a final value of 51.5 in September.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index reflects the overall development of the US manufacturing industry. Because manufacturing accounts for a large proportion of US GDP, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is also an important indicator for assessing the US business environment and overall economic conditions. 50 is a watershed that marks the shrinking or growing of the industry.
The final value of the US MARKIT manufacturing output sub-index in October was 55.5, with an initial value of 55.3 and a final value of 52.5 in September.
The final value of the US MARKIT Manufacturing New Order sub-index in October was 54.8, the highest since October 2015, with an initial value of 54.7 and a final value of 51.1 in September.
Williamson, chief economist at market research firm Markit, commented that factory orders benefited from US domestic demand and export sales boosts, laying a good foundation for US manufacturing output in the fourth quarter; due to the election, capacity investment And employment is still depressed; in short, despite rising manufacturing output, inflationary pressures in the US are rising, and the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates in December is increasing.
US October ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.9, showing that the US economy is improving in the fourth quarter
An industry report released on Tuesday (November 1) showed that the US manufacturing index rose in October and was higher than estimated.
An index below 50 means manufacturing activity is shrinking, and ISM data is often used to observe the overall economic situation in the United States.
More data shows that the US employment employment index for October was 52.9, hitting the highest since June 2015, with an estimate of 50.0 and September's 49.7.
The manufacturing new product sub-index for October was 52.1, compared with 55.1 in September.
The October manufacturing price payment index was 54.5, estimated at 54.0, and September was 53.0.
The manufacturing output index for October was 54.6, compared with 52.8 in September.
The manufacturing inventories index for October was 47.5, compared with 49.5 in September.
The ISM non-manufacturing index reflects the level of prosperity of US non-manufacturing business activities and was developed by the association after surveying nearly 400 corporate procurement and supply managers in 60 industries across the United States. These industries include agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade.
HOLCOMB, chairman of the ISM survey, commented that most of the survey comments were positive and the economy began to grow. The survey showed that the US economy was improving in the fourth quarter. China's PMI data shows good signs that the US economy has not faced any major headwinds or downwinds.
US September construction spending fell for the second consecutive month, which threatened the third quarter economic growth forecast
The US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced on Tuesday (November 1) that US construction spending fell for the second consecutive month in September, unexpectedly falling, as private non-residential buildings recorded the largest decline in nine months, which may lead to a third quarter downgrade. Economic growth projections.
Detailed data shows that construction spending in September fell by 0.4% from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted annual rate was $1.150 trillion, an increase of 0.5%. In August, construction spending was revised down by 0.5%, and the previous value was down by 0.7%.
The data was published by the US Department of Commerce, and construction expenditures are a measure of the total value of monthly construction completions in the United States, covering both new and improved construction projects in the private and public sectors. Data estimates include labor and raw material costs, construction and engineering work, daily expenses, interest and tax payments, and contractor profits during the construction period.
Reuters commented that the monthly rate of construction spending in the United States unexpectedly fell in September, mainly due to the largest decline in private non-residential construction spending in nine months.
Outlook outlook
German Commercial Bank analyst Carsten Fritsch said "Trump's risk seems to have returned to the market, at least in some areas. A common factor is the weakening of the dollar today."
In its report, HSBC said that if Trump wins the election, the uncertainty of the US economy and foreign policy will support gold, and Trump's protectionist policies and tax cuts will increase the federal deficit.
Kay's macro economist Simona Gambarini said, "We still have to observe what happens to the Fed. It is unlikely that this will raise interest rates this week. It is expected that the interest rate hike in December is reasonable."
According to a well-known technical analyst, the US election will increase the price of gold to 1,500 US dollars / ounce, the analyst said that the current environment will undermine the inverse correlation between the dollar and gold under normal circumstances.
Ron William, founder and chief market strategist of RW Market Advisory, a well-known market consultancy, said on Tuesday that the upcoming US presidential election will be withdrawn as investors withdraw from the risk exposure on November 8th. It will make normal market fluctuations a bit abnormal.
In William's view, the current gold price still has room for further upside. He said: "Gold has already got rid of the overbought condition. Under the support of the uncertainty caused by the news on Friday, the price of gold seems to be picking up again. From a technical point of view, I expect the price of gold to rise to $1,500."
At 00:22 Beijing time, spot gold reported $1,129.16 per ounce, up $13.86, or 1.09%.
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